Weft Research · Methodology v0.1

Agent Commerce Index

A map of what agents buy—not just where tokens move.

Payment data can show that value moved. The Agent Commerce Index connects that evidence to providers, capabilities, endpoints, prices, and observed demand so the market becomes legible.

Published July 23, 2026Methodology preview
ProviderAcme Data
ServiceCompany Search
CapabilityOrganization discovery
EndpointPOST /companies
Observable evidenceoffer · routed call · settlement · outcome

Current release

The method before the leaderboard.

This first release defines the observable universe, entity model, classification rules, and metrics. It intentionally publishes no fabricated market totals. Quantitative snapshots will appear only when each number can carry its source, window, coverage, and revision.

The entity graph

Blockchain analytics sees a transfer. A commerce index must test links among service identity, advertised capability, payment evidence, and measured outcome—and preserve provenance and confidence on every edge.

01Provider
02Service
03Capability
04Endpoint
05Protocol offer
06Payment event
Source

A fact directly observed in a registry, challenge, route, or settlement record.

Classification

A Weft category attached with a taxonomy version and confidence.

Outcome

Separately measured evidence that a result was returned and useful; payment alone never establishes this.

How the index is built

Every published snapshot follows the same five-stage pipeline.

  1. 01

    Collect

    Ingest declared service metadata, runtime payment offers, public settlement records, and consented Weft routing events with source and observation timestamps.

  2. 02

    Resolve

    Connect provider names, domains, wallets, services, capabilities, endpoints, and protocol offers. Preserve conflicting candidates and confidence instead of forcing a match.

  3. 03

    Classify

    Assign capabilities through a versioned taxonomy. Separate provider-declared labels, deterministic rules, and Weft-inferred categories.

  4. 04

    Measure

    Aggregate only metrics supported by the visible coverage: active endpoints, routed transactions, price distributions, repeat demand, protocol mix, and concentration.

  5. 05

    Publish

    Release a dated snapshot with methodology, coverage window, revision history, known blind spots, and reproducible definitions for every metric.

Coverage and evidence

Each input answers a different question. None is treated as a complete view of agent commerce.

SourceWhat it can showCoverage caveat
x402 BazaarCatalog entries, route and schema metadata, advertised offers, lastUpdatedAn early, optional discovery extension; catalogs are facilitator-specific and incomplete.
MPP public servicesPublished service and payment metadataDirectory, API, and MCP data is advisory; the runtime 402 challenge is authoritative.
Public settlement dataTransfer amount, asset, time, sender, recipient, transactionA transfer alone does not identify the purchased capability.
Weft-routed callsIntent, candidate set, selected endpoint, offer, settlement, measured resultFirst-party routing coverage is not the whole market.

Metrics worth publishing

Definitions come before numbers. Every metric is scoped to observable coverage.

Active providers
Resolved providers with at least one observed payable endpoint in the window.
Capability price
Median and percentile settled or offered price, grouped by taxonomy version.
Routed demand
Calls selected through Weft, separated from broader public settlement activity.
Protocol mix
Observed offers and settled calls by protocol and payment method.
Repeat demand
Repeated buyer-provider activity where buyer identity is legitimately observable.
Concentration
Share of observable calls or volume captured by leading providers in a capability.

Known blind spots

What this index will not claim.

  • It is not the entire agent economy.
  • One wallet is not assumed to equal one person, company, or agent.
  • Onchain volume is not treated as proof of useful economic activity.
  • An offered price, settled payment, and measured outcome remain separate evidence.
  • Failed calls, retries, refunds, and suspected self-trading must be separated.
  • Inferred capability labels never overwrite source facts.

Primary inputs

Methodology references

  1. x402 Bazaar discovery extension x402 Foundation ↗
  2. MPP public service catalog MPP ↗
  3. Payment discovery Internet-Draft paymentauth.org ↗
  4. x402 V2 payment flow x402 Foundation ↗
  5. Optional x402 signed offer and receipt extension x402 Foundation ↗